‘If NATO encroaches on nuclear Russia, it will be punished’

Russia has zero trust in NATO and believes that the alliance is preparing to go to war against it, a leading Russian foreign policy expert told 'Spiegel', while warning that, if it comes to a new big conflict, Moscow won’t fight it on its own soil.

In an interview with the German magazine, Sergey Karaganov, a veteran political scientist and member of the influential Foreign Policy and Defense Council of the Russia Foreign Ministry, said in bold terms that the risk of a new shooting war in Europe has been on the rise for a decade and is now as high as it was at the height of the Cold War.

The abundance of propaganda coming from both sides attests to the dangerous state of the crisis, Karaganov said.

“The Russian media is more reserved than Western media. Though you have to understand that Russia is very sensitive about defense. We have to be prepared for everything. That is the source of this occasionally massive amount of propaganda,” he said. “But what is the West doing? It is doing nothing but vilifying Russia; it believes that we are threatening to attack. The situation is comparable to the crisis at the end of the 1970s and beginning of the 1980s.”

The expert was referring to a massive build-up of intermediate-range nuclear missiles in Europe that could have easily led to an unintended nuclear war. The missiles had a very short approach time that left almost no time for an attacked side to react, making automatic retaliation the only possible reaction to a decapitating nuclear barrage. The situation was defused by a ban on intermediate-range missiles signed in 1987.

The current buildup of NATO forces on Russia’s border is not unlike the installation of Pershing and SS-20 missiles three decades ago, at least in terms of the misguided justification for deploying them, Karaganov said.

“Fears in countries like Poland, Lithuania and Latvia are to be allayed by NATO stationing weapons there. But that doesn’t help them; we interpret that as a provocation. In a crisis, we will destroy exactly these weapons. Russia will never again fight on its own territory,” he said.

“The help offered by NATO is not symbolic help for the Baltic states. It is a provocation. If NATO initiates an encroachment – against a nuclear power like ourselves – it will be punished,” he stressed.

Part of the problem is the breakdown in communications, as evidenced by the work – or lack thereof – of the NATO-Russia Council, which was created to resolve differences between the alliance and Russia, but is “no longer a legitimate body,” according to Karaganov.

“NATO has become a qualitatively different alliance. When we began the dialogue with NATO, it was a defensive alliance of democratic powers. But then, the NATO-Russia Council served as cover for and the legalization of NATO expansion. When we really needed it – in 2008 and 2014 – it wasn’t there,” he said referring to Russia’s most recent major security crises – Georgia’s attack on South Ossetia and the violent coup in Ukraine.

READ MORE: Bulgaria sails against tide as NATO mulls stronger presence in Black Sea

The enmity between Russia and Europe hurts both parties in other ways as well, the expert said. After decades of careless life, Europe has forgotten how to engage in realpolitik, unlike Russia, Karaganov says, meaning that Europe loses out on Russia’s help on issues such as the refugee crisis, which Moscow is unlikely to offer in the face of the confrontation.

“In Europe, you have a different political system, one that is unable to adapt to the challenges of the new world. The German chancellor said that our president lives in a different world. I believe he lives in a very real world,” Karaganov said.

Russia, for its part, is hurt because Russia’s elites find an excuse not to undertake painful but necessary domestic reforms as long as the threat from NATO exists.

Karaganov says Russia won’t offer any concessions to the West in the face of the stand-off anytime soon, but, rather, it will refocus its attention eastward while drifting further from Europe, though he admitted that such an outcome is not the best for Russia.

“We believe that Russia is morally in the right. There won’t be any fundamental concessions coming from our side,” he said. “Psychologically, Russia has now become a Eurasian power – I was one of the intellectual fathers of the eastward pivot. But now I am of the opinion that we shouldn’t turn away from Europe. We have to find ways to revitalize our relations.”

  • Published in World

‘Tanks? No thanks!’: Czechs Unhappy about US Military Convoy Crossing Country

Czech anti-war activists have launched the ‘Tanks? No thanks!’ campaign to protest the procession of US Army hardware through the Eastern European country. They say it has been turned into a “provocative victory parade” near the Russian border.

The American military vehicles, which took part in NATO drills in Poland, Lithuania and Estonia, plan to cross the territory of the Czech Republic between March 29 and April 1 on their way to a base in the German city of Vilseck.

The exercise, entitled the ‘Dragoon Ride,’ will involve over a hundred Stryker vehicles, which the US is expected to station in Europe, and will see the convoy stop in a new city every night. Last week, it was authorized by the Czech government, without any debate in the parliament, Pressenza news agency reported.

The US procession has been labeled “an unnecessary and dangerously provocative military maneuvers, which only increase international tension” on the ‘Tanks? No thanks!’ page on Facebook.

The campaigners believe that a simple relocation of vehicles has been turned into “a victory parade” as the US convoy is expected to “organize activities to impress local residents with their military power.”

“The last time that vehicles like this came to the Czech Republic, they were Soviet tanks coming to crush moves towards democracy in 1968. We don’t want such vehicles from foreign armies coming here ever again,” Tana Bednarova from the ‘World without Wars and without Violence’ organization, which supports the campaign, said.

Bednarova has also slammed the expansion of NATO to the east, saying that if the US and its allies really “wants to create security in the world then Russia and China and all other countries of the world should be invited to join.”

Czech communists speaking out against the ride say it will only cause traffic jams and annoy locals. Fearing that protesters could stage “provocations”, the Czech government, according to local media, has even instructed its own military to protect the US military convoy as it crosses the country.

Besides their activity on social networks, the activists have placed fake road signs, with a tank in a red circle and a red line though it, along the announced route of the US convoy.

The Stryker vehicles are usually transported by rail, but it was decided that they would take a ride through Eastern Europe to demonstrate a US commitment to NATO and its allies in the region.

According to Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, the US Army Europe commander, it’s important for the American military to show that it “can move a lot of capability a long distance” after Russia relocated thousands of its troops during a massive domestic drill earlier in March.

“The whole purpose … is to assure those allies that live closest to the Bear that we are here,” Hodges said of the maneuvering. “President Putin exercises freedom of movement all the time. He moves troops and stuff around Russia whenever he wants to.”

The US move comes shortly after the one-year anniversary of Russia’s absorption of the Republic of Crimea, with tensions between Moscow and the West remaining high over the conflict in Ukraine. Despite failing to provide any significant proof, the US and EU claim that Russia is fueling rebellions in eastern Ukraine with military supplies and troops, while the Kremlin is denying all allegations.

This weekend Russia completed its nationwide military drills that saw over 80,000 troops all over the country put on high alert to conduct exercises, which involved over 10,000 vehicles, 65 warships, 16 support vessels, 15 submarines, 200 warplanes and helicopters.

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