Global artists travel to Cuba for Colloquium on Latinos in the US

Artists from nine countries will participate in the fifth International Colloquium on Latinos in the United States, which will be held in the Cuban capital from Tuesday to Thursday, as announced at a press conference.

Promoted by the Casa de las Americas, the event will bring together some 48 intellectuals from Argentina, Mexico, Chile, Puerto Rico, Salvador, Brazil, Spain, the United States and Cuba.

Among the participants is Alicia Arrizon, a professor of Gender and Sexuality Studies at the University of California (United States), and Maria Jose Buchanan, a scholar of the Upper Middle Division at the University of Monterrey (Mexico).

The program includes 15 papers focused on the management of Latino cultural industries in the United States and their transnational spaces.

The event will also feature a musical space, this time with special guest American pianist Arturo O'Farrill, who will perform at the close of the Colloquium on the 17th.

  • Published in Culture

How Hillary Clinton could win 270 electoral votes

Hillary Clinton is the favorite to win Tuesday’s presidential election. But the race has tightened of late in both national and swing state polls, and there’s been increasing chatter suggesting that Clinton’s “firewall” protecting an electoral college majority could be in danger.

The big picture, though, is that Clinton has two broad paths toward reaching 270 electoral votes:

1) Holding her six “firewall” states: Virginia, Colorado, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire. Those states, combined with the solidly Democratic states, would give her the presidency.

2) If she loses one or more firewall states, she’d likely have to make up for those losses with similarly-sized wins in one or more of the following: Nevada, North Carolina, and Florida — the diverse toss-up state trio.

 

Let’s walk through the math. Clinton starts off with 200 or so likely electoral votes, from the blue states, below:

 Vox

Now, this list of solid Clinton states does include New Mexico, Minnesota, and the statewide Maine contest (its congressional districts award electoral votes separately). The Trump campaign has argued that all of them are competitive, but political observers have greeted those claims with intense skepticism. And in any case, if Clinton is losing those states she probably has much bigger problems elsewhere.

If Clinton does win this batch of blue states, though, she’d need to put together a combination of 70 or more electoral votes in the remaining contests to get to 270. Here’s how she could do it.

 

Clinton’s first shot at winning is through protecting her firewall

Back around August, polls started to indicate have that Clinton’s easiest path to 270 electoral votes could be through winning six states in particular where she’s led the vast majority of polls this year: Virginia, Colorado, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire.

These states have often been referred to as the “firewall” protecting Clinton’s electoral college majority. If she won them, while holding on to the solid blue states, she’d win 272 electoral votes and therefore the presidency, without even needing to win other swing states like Florida, North Carolina, and Nevada.

 Vox

Yet as election day approaches, the strength of Clinton’s firewall is coming into question.

Analysts generally think that Clinton is still in good shape in Colorado (nine electoral votes) and Virginia (13 electoral votes), two states with sizable nonwhite populations and growing numbers of educated white voters. And high-quality polling in Wisconsin (10 electoral votes) suggests she’s still ahead there too.

Yet she’s gotten more mixed news in the three other firewall states.

In Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes), the biggest and most important firewall state, no recent poll has shown Trump ahead. But Clinton’s lead appears to have shrunk to just a couple of points, on average.

In Michigan (16 electoral votes), the second-biggest firewall state, Clinton’s team has long thought the race wasn’t seriously competitive, and didn’t bother to run ads there until recently. But the newest polls have shown her lead shrinking to the low single digits all of a sudden, and the Clinton campaign is scheduling several last-minute campaign events there to shore up her support.

And in New Hampshire (four electoral votes), Clinton had led every poll since July — until last week, when five new polls all either showed a tie race or Trump taking the lead. Now, another poll just released shows her up 11, but still, it’s not entirely clear whether the Granite State is really still part of the firewall.

Overall, if Clinton holds the firewall, she wins. But if one or more firewall states do end up falling, she’ll have to make up for those losses elsewhere.

Clinton could compensate for some firewall losses by winning more diverse toss-up states

Outside of the firewall are three states that appear from polls to be pure toss-ups — Florida, North Carolina, and Nevada.

This trio of states has tended, over the course of the campaign, to be tighter in the polls than the firewall states. In normal circumstances, that would suggest that they are inherently less pro-Clinton — and so, if the firewall states moved out of her reach, they would move similarly away from her.

Perhaps that would happen. But the demographic aspects of Trump and Clinton’s respective support bases suggest it’s not guaranteed. Trump’s support is heavily concentrated among non-college educated white voters — who are actually a pretty big share of the electorate in several firewall states, like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and New Hampshire. So Democrats have increasingly gotten nervous that those non-college whites could turn out heavily in those states, particularly after reports of lower black voter turnout so far than 2012.

Florida, Nevada, and North Carolina, on the other hand, all have populations that are a third or more nonwhite. In the former two those nonwhite voters are mostly Hispanic, and Hispanic voters appear to have been galvanized in opposition to Trump. North Carolina has a much smaller Hispanic population, but it has a reasonably high amount of college-educated white voters, many of whom have also tended to oppose Trump.

Furthermore, early voting has proceeded apace in this trio of swing states for weeks — and many observers believe the Clinton campaign is better at turning out early voters than the Trump campaign. Indeed, in all three, votes equivalent to more than 60 percent of total 2012 votes have already been cast. So the Clinton campaign’s ground game had much more time to turn out voters compared to Pennsylvania, Michigan, and New Hampshire, where there is no in-person early voting.

The toss-up states Clinton would need to plug up various firewall losses

The firewall states in which Clinton’s prospects appear to be diciest right now are, again, New Hampshire, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. So if she lost one or more of them, she’d probably have to make up for it by winning some combination of the toss-up states (Nevada, Florida, and North Carolina) that’s at least roughly equivalent in electoral votes.

Here are the possible ways that could play out:

1) If Clinton wins only Nevada and its six electoral votes, while losing North Carolina and Florida, she’d only be able to cancel out a loss of New Hampshire’s four electoral votes, so she’d need the whole rest of the firewall to hold strong. (Many observers now expect Clinton to win Nevada despite the tight polls, since early voting seems to have gone well for Democrats there.)

2) If Clinton wins only North Carolina (where 15 electoral votes are at stake), that would probably be a good enough substitute for the loss of Michigan’s 16 electoral votes to give her the presidency. It could also, of course, make up for a New Hampshire loss. But it wouldn’t be sufficient to make up for a loss of both Michigan and New Hampshire, or for the loss of Pennsylvania.

3) Now, if Clinton wins both North Carolina and Nevada, that would give her 21 electoral votes, which would be enough to cancel out the loss of either Pennsylvania, Michigan, or New Hampshire alone, or the loss of Michigan and New Hampshire combined.

4) The easiest way Clinton could help herself is by winning Florida and its yuge haul of 29 electoral votes. That would cancel out the loss of any one firewall state, the loss of New Hampshire and Pennsylvania, or the loss of New Hampshire and Michigan.

5) If Clinton wins Florida and Nevada (35 electoral votes) she’d also be able to cancel out the loss of Michigan and Pennsylvania together, so long as she held on to New Hampshire.

6) Then, if Clinton wins both Florida and North Carolina (a hefty 44 electoral votes) she could survive the loss of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire together (whether or not she won Nevada).

7) Finally, if Clinton won Florida, North Carolina, and Nevada together (50 electoral votes), she could survive some pretty massive losses of firewall states.

This last scenario is what we might call the “full Brownstein”— referring to Atlantic journalist Ron Brownstein, who has long argued that Democratic support is being concentrated among a “coalition of the ascendant” (nonwhites, young voters, and socially liberal college-educated whites), while the party is losing whites without a college education.

 

Indeed, here’s what one version of the “full Brownstein” scenario might look like — in which Clinton loses the firewall states of New Hampshire, Michigan, and Pennsylvania (along with Ohio and Iowa) while making up for it with North Carolina, Florida, and Nevada. It’s certainly not the most likely map based on current polling (which, again, shows Clinton still ahead in Michigan and Pennsylvania), but it would be a tremendously significant map for the future of the Democratic coalition.

The Full Brownstein.
Vox

Of course there are many plausible scenarios where Clinton wins bigger, too. She could hold the firewall and win all three diverse toss-up states. She could also still have a shot at Arizona and Ohio, both of which she continues to contest even though polls indicate they’re leaning toward Trump.

But as far as how Hillary Clinton can get over 270 votes in the first place, the answer seems clear — either she holds her firewall states, or she makes up for firewall state losses with wins among the three diverse swing states.

  • Published in World

Trump's Racism May Be Feeding Anti-Latino Hate Crimes in LA

Hate crimes had been in decline but 2015 saw an increase for the first time in seven years.

A report from the Los Angeles County Commission on Human Relations indicated a 69 percent increase in hate crimes toward Latinos in the city, LA Weekly reported Thursday.

RELATED: NYPD Infiltrated Black Lives Matter with Undercover Officers

Overall, hate crimes increased 24 percent “across the board” in 2015, marking a break a with what had been a seven-year decline.

“We are extremely concerned that reported hate crimes increased dramatically in 2015,” Robin Toma, executive director of the commission, told LA Weekly.

Los crímenes de odio habían ido descendiendo en los últimos años, pero han repuntado en 2015 (Foto: AP)

“The disturbing rise in bias-motivated crime indicates that, despite the gains made by historically marginalized communities, bigoted attacks are still a daily occurrence, and that is unacceptable.”

The report did not mention U.S. Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump but his heated and racist rhetoric toward Latinos is widely suspected of feeding into a climate that legitimizes white supremacy.

Trump has called for mass deportations and for a wall to be built on the U.S.-Mexico border in order to purportedly curb irregular migration.

RELATED:FIFA Is Wrong! Racism Is Rampant in Soccer and Here's Why

The commission reported that there were 34 crimes where anti-immigrant language was used. 74 percent of the crimes were violent.

The largest number of hate crimes targeted Black people who, according to the report, were “grossly over-represented.” Of the 241 reported racial hate crimes, 58 percent were directed against Black people, who only make up 8.3 percent of Los Angeles county residents.

Hate crimes targeting gay men and transgender women also saw an increase in 2015 over 2014. Transgender women saw the highest rate of hate-crime violence last year.

The uptick in hate crimes against Muslims and people of Middle Eastern descent coincided with attacks in Paris and San Bernardino by extremists claiming to act in the name of Islam.

The report specified that the numbers do not tell a complete story as the vast majority of hate crimes go unreported or are not classified as hate crimes.

  • Published in World

Rapper's Video Calls on US Latinos to Stand Together

The musician released the song to fight ignorance, which she says has led to segregation among Latinos from different countries.
 

According to Snow, the song "Despierta," or Wake Up, is a message for Latinos to put their differences aside and stand together in moments of political hardship.

“I get it we’re all different and we’ve gone through different experiences, but at the same time we all have to unite as one and not categorize ourselves or put people down for being lighter or darker,” said Snow to Fusion. “In the end we’re the only people holding ourselves back.”

The musician said ignorance has led to segregation among Latinos, depending on their skin color and country.

Snow is seen seated in a replica of the oval office in the video, singing about Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump‘s hate for Mexicans, and U.S. President Barack Obama's immigration policies.

“Latinos put Obama in this same seat,” says the song. “Yet he still deported more people than all the other presidents.”

RELATED: Hollywood's Incredible Invisible Latinos

“I wanted to have people think about that line. It sucks,” said Snow during an interview.

Snow also attacked Trump in the song saying “that Donald Duck really frustrates me ... Trump is going end this fucking world.”

The video already has has almost 3 million views on Facebook and YouTube combined.

Snow Tha Product, whose real name is Claudia Alexandra Feliciano, was born in San Jose, California and usually performs her songs in English, but for this song she wanted to send a clear message to Latinos in the U.S.

“I don’t feel like translating into English because I want it to be like talking to family behind close doors. it’s kind of like when you want to talk to family or siblings and you don’t want to put them on blast,” said Snow.

  • Published in Culture
Subscribe to this RSS feed